On January 14th, Samsung launched the S21 series of smartphones at its latest Samsung Unpacked event. While there were few surprises, there were a number of important developments. In this article, I will compare the S21 line-up with the S20 line-up and also offer some insights into their expected volume.
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To start off 2021, I will continue the tradition started two years ago of laying out some predictions for the year. I consulted with my DSCC colleagues for both topics of interest and for predictions and received contributions from Ross and Guillaume, but I write this column for my own account, and readers should not assume that anyone else at DSCC holds the same opinions. While I’ve numbered these predictions, the numbers are for reference only; they are not in any particular order.
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A power outage at one of NEG’s main glass production sites in Japan may exacerbate an already tight glass supply situation and lead to a full-blown glass shortage. An unrelated tank problem at one of Corning’s Gen 10.5 plants in China adds to the supply woes. A constraint on glass supply may lead to a corresponding constraint on LCD panel supply which may lead to even greater price increases for LCD panels.
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After a difficult Q1’20 and Q2’20 as a result of COVID-19 related travel restrictions to customers in China, the display equipment market rebounded in Q3’20, enjoying Y/Y growth for the first time since Q4’18 and higher margins. In a survey of 36 publicly traded display equipment companies, we found that their display equipment revenues rose 58% Q/Q and 24% Y/Y to $2.8B, the highest since Q4’18, breaking a streak of 6 consecutive quarters with a Y/Y decline. The Q3’20 surge can be attributed to delays in installations in Q1’20 and Q2’20 which represented the lowest values since Q1’16. Importantly, the rebound won’t end in Q3’20. We see a strong Q4’20 as well, especially for Canon which is installing multiple high-priced VTE systems and litho systems to China and Korea.
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DSCC has released the second issue of its Quarterly Foldable/Rollable Display Shipment and Technology Report. Highlights of the Q4’20 issue include: • Foldable panel shipments are expected to rise 454% in 2020 to 3.1M units in 2020. Foldable panel revenues are expected to rise 394% to $462M. Shipments and revenues are below earlier expectations as US restrictions prevented Huawei from launching the Mate X2, an 8” in-folding device which was expected to drive a lot of volume in Q4’20. • Samsung is clearly the dominant brand in 2020 with over a 90% share in Q3’20 and Q4’20 on a panel procurement basis and an 87% share for the year. On a brand shipment basis, its share is even higher for 2020 at 88%.
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OLED panel revenues will increase by 49% sequentially to an all-time high of almost $12 billion in the 4th quarter of 2020, according to the latest update of the DSCC Quarterly OLED Shipment Report for Q4 2020, as increased panel shipments for smartphones are joined with revenue growth in TVs, smartwatches and other applications.
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Advanced TV shipments are expected to grow by 22% Y/Y in Q4 2020, and by a comparable 22% CAGR through 2025 to 32.5 million units according the latest update to DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report, now available to subscribers. This report covers the worldwide premium TV market, including the most advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD Display, QDEF, Dual Cell LCD and MiniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. The report looks at current and future TV shipments and revenues by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and forecasts the growth of all these technologies. Last week we covered the most recent historical results and this week we will cover our updated forecast.
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Last week DSCC issued the display capacity chapter of its Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report. Highlights include: • We have upgraded our 2025 display capacity forecast by 3% which is mostly a result of pulling in a number of OLED fabs, the addition of LGD E6-3 and small expansions at a few LCD fabs. We now show display capacity growing at just a 2.7% CAGR.
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As locked-down consumers upgraded their TV sets, Advanced TV revenues jumped in the third quarter of 2020, according the new DSCC Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report, now available to subscribers. This report covers the worldwide premium TV market, including the most advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD Display, QDEF, Dual Cell LCD and MiniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. The report looks at current and future TV shipments and revenues by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and forecasts the growth of all of these technologies. The report includes the preliminary shipment results for Q3 2020 and a forecast to 2025. This week we will cover the Q3 results, with a focus on the brand competition in the premium segment, and next week we will cover our updated forecast.
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Display industry revenues in Q3 2020 increased to their highest level since Q4 2017 at $30.5 billion, up 21% Q/Q and up 11% Y/Y. The first chart in this section shows revenue share. Samsung has continued to hold the top position in revenue share, but is closely followed by BOE and LGD as the only other companies with double-digit shares. Then there is a cluster of four companies between 5% and 8% share: AUO, Innolux, CSOT and Sharp, with JDI falling out of that tier and also trailing Tianma.
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