Flat panel display revenues increased 1% Q/Q and 52% Y/Y, to hit a record in Q1 2021 at $34.8B. With all panel makers reporting their Q1 2021 results, we can compile a full industry review for Q1, a terrific quarter for panel makers, especially those oriented toward large-area LCD panels.
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The shortage of large LCDs, which has lasted for almost a year and has resulted in the biggest panel price increases in the history of the industry, has begun to turn into an oversupply. The demand drivers that led to the shortage, particularly strong TV demand in the USA, are fading away with the spread of vaccination in the United States, and industry supply is filling the pipeline with enough inventory to eliminate any fear of shortage.
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In past years, one of the most valuable and interesting features of the Display Week Business Conference was the ability for attendees to ask questions of the presenters and expand the dialog to new topics or challenge assertions made. With the virtual format of this year’s Display Week, the Q&A function occurred online, but DSCC has gathered audience questions and recorded videos with the presenters. These videos are now available on the Display Week site to registered attendees of the Business Conference. You can find the Q&A videos for each presenter in the respective Business Conference. Registration is still available at http://www.displayweek.org/2021/Attendee/Registration and the Business Conference presentations will be available online until September 17th, 2021.
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DSCC upgraded its LCD capacity forecast in the latest issue of its Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report while reducing its OLED capacity forecast. As indicated in the figure, DSCC upgraded its 2025 display capacity forecast by 4.4% versus the prior issue due to 14 new LCD investments as manufacturers respond to tight supply and higher prices. Manufacturers are also looking to stretch capacity through process simplification and de-bottlenecking to meet demand and take advantage of the higher prices. We now see 10% growth in LCD + OLED capacity in 2021, with 3%-5% growth from 2022-2025. Relative to last quarter, capacity growth is 1% - 5% higher per year from 2021-2025. Display capacity is now growing at a 5.2% CAGR versus 4.3% last quarter. LCD capacity was upgraded by 5.3% versus the previous issue and now grows at a 3.9% CAGR versus 2.8% last quarter.
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Strong demand for expensive home theater systems from pandemic-constrained consumers led to triple-digit percentage increases in sales of the largest screen sizes for Advanced TVs, according to the new DSCC Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report, now available to subscribers. This report covers the worldwide premium TV market, including the most advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD Display, QDEF, Dual Cell LCD and MiniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. The report looks at current and future TV shipments and revenues by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and forecasts the growth of all of these technologies. The report includes the shipment result for Q1 2021 and a forecast to 2026. This week we will cover the Q1 2021 results, focusing on the brand competition in the premium segment, and next week we will cover our updated forecast.
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The Business Conference session on TV Display Technology and Markets brought five presentations, including my own, three from the market research side and two from the industry representing competing technologies for wide color gamut. My presentation covered material that should be familiar to DSCC Weekly Review readers, so I will not duplicate it here, but I can describe the main topics:
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Strong demand for LCD products combined with concerns about shortages in key components have driven LCD TV panel prices to their most significant increases ever on a percentage basis, and prices show no signs of slowing down in Q2. In our last update in early April, we anticipated that price increases would decelerate in Q2, but we now see price increases accelerating compared to Q1. Panel prices increased by 27% in Q4 2020 compared to Q3 and slowed down to 14.5% in Q1 2021 compared to Q4, but our current estimate is that average LCD TV panel prices in Q2 2021 will increase by another 17%. We now expect prices to peak sometime in Q3 2021.
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Sales for AMOLED stack materials for all applications are expected to grow by 36% in 2021 and to grow at a 15% annual rate from $927M in 2019 to $2.18B in 2025, according to the latest update of DSCC’s Quarterly AMOLED Material Report. The report details all aspects of AMOLED materials, including multiple applications, supplier matrices and cost comparisons.
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DSCC’s latest Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report reveals a surge in LCD equipment spending to respond to dramatically improved market conditions in the LCD market. DSCC sees LCD revenues rising 32% in 2021 to $112B on strong unit and area growth with prices and profitability rebounding to or even exceeding the 2017 levels. With LCD suppliers able to sell everything they can make at attractive margins; it should be no surprise that most LCD manufacturers are looking to expand capacity. However, unlike previous upturns when many new fabs were built, in this upturn panel suppliers are looking to stretch their capacity through smaller investments, simplifying their processes, debottlenecking, etc. Having said that, we still see two new G8.6 mega fabs being built. Over the last three months, we have added or expanded 14 different LCD investments. The result versus last quarter is a 10% or a $2.2B increase in 2020-2024 LCD spending from $21.8B to $24B. As shown below, our latest 2021 LCD equipment spending forecast is up 15% versus last quarter’s forecast to $10B, with 2021 LCD equipment spending up 125% versus 2021. In addition, 2022 was upgraded by 28% to $3.5B.
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Last week, Foxconn Technology Group, along with the Governor’s office of the State of Wisconsin, released news that the two sides had agreed on a renegotiated contract for subsidies for Foxconn manufacturing in the State. The renegotiated deal between the Wisconsin Economic Development (WEDC) and Foxconn apparently puts an end to the idea of LCD manufacturing and reduces the maximum obligation of the State by 97%. “When I ran to be governor, I made a promise to work with Foxconn to cut a better deal for our State—the last deal didn’t work for Wisconsin, and that doesn’t work for me,” said Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers. “Today I’m delivering on that promise with an agreement that treats Foxconn like any other business and will save taxpayers $2.77 billion, protect the hundreds of millions of dollars in infrastructure investments the State and local communities have already made, and ensure there’s accountability for creating the jobs promised.”
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