Blog from October 2022

TV

Advanced TV Market Expected to Reach $36B by 2026

October 3, 2022

Advanced TV shipments are expected to grow by a 17% CAGR through 2026 to 34.6M units generating $36.1B in revenue, according to the latest update to DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report, now available to subscribers. In our latest update, our forecast for OLED TV has been reduced as the competition between OLED and MiniLED has heated up. With the steep declines in LCD TV panel prices since mid-2021, MiniLED TVs have been priced more aggressively and are expected to continue to gain share.
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OLED

OLED Panel Revenues Expected to Decline 4% Y/Y in 2022 - Slower Growth for IT Applications

October 3, 2022

In the recently released Quarterly OLED Shipment Report , we reveal that 2022 OLED panel revenues are expected to decrease 4% Y/Y to $40.3B as a result of slower growth for monitors, notebook PCs and game platforms combined with faster Y/Y declines for smartphones. As macroeconomic concerns persist for battling inflation, monetary policies are enacted to combat it. While balancing a possible recession, weakened consumer demand, persistent supply chain issues, softening commercial demand and inventory buildup have created the perfect storm for Y/Y unit and revenue declines for smartphones, smartwatches and TVs in 2022.
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Mobile

Apple Reportedly Slows Down iPhone 14 Series Production, But Still Well Ahead of 2021 per DSCC, Pro Max Up 18% Y/Y

October 3, 2022

Bloomberg reported last week that Apple asked suppliers to get ready for an additional 7% boost to its CY 2022 production targets shortly before launch, but recently decided to cancel those plans. The cause of course is the weakening global economy with Europe headed to a recession on super high energy prices, weaker currencies relative to the $US and even weakness in China due to COVID related shutdowns and economic weakness. Jefferies reported that iPhone sales over the first three days of availability in China were down 11% Y/Y with less scalper activity and shorter lines in retail. Bloomberg said Apple plans to make 90M iPhone 14 Series phones in 2022 with emphasis on the Pro and Pro Max models.
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Foldable

Are Z Flip 4 and Z Fold 4 Volumes Coming Down vs. Expectations? Q4 Looks Soft

October 3, 2022

A recent report by a Hyundai Securities analyst indicated that Samsung may only be able to ship 10M foldable smartphones in 2022, down from previous estimates of 15M, with the Z Flip 4 and Z Fold 4 accounting for 8M. Based on panel forecasts through November, we see Flip 4 and Fold 4 panel shipments up 47% and 46% respectively vs. the Flip 3 and Fold 3 amounting to 9M. However, this is down 8% vs. the figures in our Quarterly Foldable/Rollable Display Shipment and Technology Report, with the Flip 4, 7% below previous expectations and the Fold 4, 12% below our previous forecast. For Q3’22, we believe Flip 4/Fold 4 panel shipments actually came in 0.5% ahead of expectations with the Flip 4 actually 2% ahead of expectations and the Fold 4, 1% below expectations.
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Financial

Samsung Earnings Slumped in Q3 But LG Managed Y/Y Gain

October 10, 2022

Samsung Electronics’ revenues for Q3’22 edged down on a sequential basis, but its operating profits dropped sharply, according to its earnings guidance released last week. Meanwhile, LG Electronics reported strong Y/Y gains in both revenues and operating profits in local currency for the quarter. For both companies, revenues fell on a Y/Y basis when translated into US dollars since the Korean won depreciated 6% compared to Q2’22 and 16% compared to Q3’21.
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OLED

OLED Smartphone Panel Revenues to Decline 5% Y/Y in 2022

October 10, 2022

In the recently released Advanced Smartphone Display Shipment and Technology Report, we reveal additional granularity and insights for the expected 13% Y/Y and 5% Y/Y panel revenue decline for OLED smartphones. OLED smartphone panel revenue is expected to decline to $31B from $33B in 2021. As a result of the continued macroeconomic environment, persistent supply chain issues and weakened consumer demand, major smartphone brands continue to reduce their OLED smartphone panel procurement for 2022 by double-digit percentages.
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TV

US TV Inflation Takes a One-Month Pause as Overall Inflation Continues

October 17, 2022

In September 2022, headline inflation numbers in the US continued their slow but steady decrease from their highest point in more than 40 years, but the concern in financial markets centered on the rise of “core” inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy costs. Meanwhile, the steep declines in LCD TV panel prices that started in the second half of 2021 are continuing to flow through to retail, although the downward trend took a one-month pause in September.
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Financial

Taiwan Panel Makers Booked M/M Revenue Increase in September; Have They Hit Bottom?

October 17, 2022

For the first time in seven months, total revenues for the three Taiwan-based panel makers increased on a M/M basis, as reported by the companies last week, giving a hopeful sign that LCD panel makers may have reached the bottom. Combined revenues increased by 5% M/M and the Y/Y comparison while still severe is slightly improved from August, the first such improvement in the Y/Y trend for nearly two years. September revenues for the three companies of TWD 34.3B (US$1.09B) were down by 47% compared to September 2021.
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Financial

Panel Maker Q3 Earnings Preview

October 24, 2022

In the next few weeks, we will see the Q3 earnings announcements for flat panel display makers, starting with LG Display and AUO on Wednesday, October 26th. The heady profits of 2021 seem like a distant memory, and the industry looks poised for its worst quarter since the start of the pandemic. Panel prices started to decline a year ago and have not stopped their decline, and even with lower prices the demand for panels has decreased. After panel makers along with their downstream partners in the display supply chain built a tremendous amount of excess inventory, they slowed their utilization in the third quarter in a bid to reverse the industry oversupply. We expect that panel makers will report another quarter of declining margins for Q3’22 and expect several panel makers to report operating losses.
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Foldable

Foldable Smartphone Panel Shipments Expected to Be Down Big in Q4’22

October 24, 2022

We had expected Q4’22 foldable panel shipments of 5.4M based on supplier surveys, but we are now seeing 2.9M, a 46% reduction as shown in the chart below. Q4’22 foldable panel shipments are expected to be down 54% Q/Q and 26% Y/Y. Sell through of the Z Flip 4 and Z Fold 4 have been below expectations. The iPhone 14 Series has sucked up most of the attention and sell-through and the Z Fold 4 price of $1799 remains too high in this environment. As a result, both the Z Fold 4 and Z Flip 4 are expected to be down Y/Y vs. the Z Fold 3 and Z Flip 3 in Q4, in fact, they are expected to be down big as you can see in the chart below. However, they were up in Q2 and Q3 and should be up for 2022, but only in the mid-single digits. Also weighing on Q4’22 foldable panel shipments are a number of Chinese models ramping slower and/or later than expected.
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