DSCC issued its latest LCD and OLED fab schedules last week as part of its Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report and its OLED Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report. In addition to the fab schedules in Gantt chart form sorted chronologically and by manufacturer, we also provide an analysis of all the latest FPD fab schedule changes.
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The best thing that can be said about LCD TV panel prices in October is that the pattern is not worse than September, which remains the month with the largest single-month decline in panel prices in the history of the industry. The average decline in October among the seven TV sizes we track was “only” 15.5%, almost but not quite matching the 15.8% decline in September. LCD TV panel prices have now lost more than half the gains that they achieved in the long up-cycle from May 2020 to June 2021.
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This week, DSCC is hosting the AR/VR Display Forum, a two-day virtual event (November 3-4) on display technologies for augmented reality and virtual reality. DSCC took the initiative to organize this Forum because the display is a key component to deliver the user experience promised by both AR and VR. Applied Materials is a Platinum sponsor and will present their latest manufacturing innovations during the conference. The company has kindly agreed to answer a few questions ahead of the event. The answers below were provided by Applied Materials’ executive staff: Robert Visser, Max McDaniel, Paul Gallagher and Nag Patibandla.
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Microdisplay maker eMagin announced last week achieving a major milestone in OLED displays that may enable the next wave of AR and VR devices. In a small event in New York City which I attended, eMagin demonstrated their full-color OLED microdisplay capable of 10,000 cd/m2. As described in DSCC’s Annual Augmented and Virtual Reality Display Technologies and Market Report, displays are a key enabling technology for AR and VR, and may limit the ability of devices to deliver the immersive experience that they promise. Some of the early efforts at VR have been hindered by motion artifacts, low resolution or other issues. At the NY event, eMagin CEO Andrew Sculley gave a short presentation which included this comparison of some existing VR devices which do not achieve anything close to the resolution capability of the human eye.
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Complementing the quarterly shipment tracking we do on smartphones, foldables and TVs, DSCC has released the first issue of its Quarterly Advanced IT Display Report which tracks OLED and MiniLED competition in the tablet, notebook PC and monitor/AIO market.
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DSCC hosted the AR/VR Display Forum last week. The virtual event featured three DSCC analysts and 18 invited speakers from various companies involved in augmented reality and virtual reality. The topics covered included display technologies (LCD, OLED, MicroLED) as well as lasers and waveguides.
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In DSCC’s newly released Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report, one of the many highlights is the cost comparisons between OLEDs and MiniLED panels in tablets, notebooks and monitors. We took the MiniLED panel sizes that Apple has or will introduce at 12.9”, 16.2” and 27” and tried to compare them on an apples to apples basis with identically sized OLEDs. We actually looked at two different flavors of MiniLED backlight units (BLUs) as shown below. For tablets and notebooks, we looked at chip on board (COB) FPC and BT type PCB backplanes with 10,000 MiniLEDs and 2596 zones as well as a lower cost approach with 3000 MiniLEDs and 779 zones using package on Board MiniLEDs with FR4 PCB backplanes. For monitors, we used an 1152 zone configuration with 5000 MiniLEDs and a BT-type PCB backplane. The report laid out the type of fab utilization and yields which assumed G8.5 oxide backplanes were used with variable refresh rates up to 120Hz.
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DSCC has increased its 2020-2025 display equipment spending forecast by 2.3% vs. last quarter to $80.7B, helped by rising OLED spending in Korea targeting the IT market, as revealed in the latest issue of its Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report. In 2022, spending is forecasted to fall by 11% vs. last quarter due to a delay at a Chinese mobile OLED supplier, which will boost 2023.
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The steep declines in LCD TV panel prices are reversing the unprecedented surge of inflation in TVs, and prices have peaked but remain higher on a Y/Y basis, according to the most recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI). The BLS publishes CPI statistics for hundreds of categories, and its current data set goes back to 1996, but the CPI is indexed to 1982-1984.
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DSCC has confirmed with its supply chain sources that Google has decided not to bring the Pixel Fold to market. Not in 2021 and reportedly not in the first half of 2022. Our sources indicated that Google believed the product wouldn’t be as competitive as it needed to be. They likely figured that competing against Samsung in the US and Europe in a small niche market facing higher costs than their primary competitor, would stack the odds against this project. I point out regional differences as in China, where Samsung is not as strong, we do expect to see many competing products with similar form factors from Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, Huawei and Honor.
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