There have been several recent reports claiming that Apple will release a MicroLED Watch in 2024. Our understanding is that production of the MicroLED displays will indeed start in 2024, but Apple will likely launch the new product in 2025.
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In the next few weeks, we will see the Q4’22 earnings announcements for flat panel display makers, starting with LG Display on Friday, January 27th. The industry was clearly on a downward trend in the first three quarters of 2022, and we will look for signs that the worst is over and the industry can start to recover. Panel prices ended their long decline in September 2022 and rebounded slightly in the fourth quarter, but demand was still weak. Panel makers slowed their utilization in the third quarter in a bid to reverse the industry oversupply, and this continued into the fourth quarter. We expect that mot panel makers will report another quarter of operating losses.
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In a presentation at the Needham Growth Conference last week, Universal Display Corporation (UDC) President and CEO Steve Abramson confirmed his company’s progress on development of a phosphorescent blue emitter. Abramson also discussed the company’s recent announcement of a long-term agreement with Samsung Display and reaffirmed his company’s 2022 revenue guidance of $600M, plus or minus $10M.
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Last week, I covered the major TV brand demos at CES 2023, but of course there was a lot more than that to see. Some of the most crowded and popular demonstrations fit into the AR/VR/MR category, which was arguably the hottest topic at the show. Unfortunately, the two most important devices in this category – the Sony PSVR2 and the Magic Leap 2 – were so swamped with visitors that I was unable to get a demonstration in the limited time I had in Las Vegas. However, I did get to sample some of the latest devices from other manufacturers.
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At CES 2023, Samsung Display (SDC) unveiled for the first time a new product for automobiles, 'New Digital Cockpit', targeting the self-driving car market. This product is a Rigid OLED that combines a 34" and a 15.6" display.
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After LCD TV panel prices hit bottom in September 2022 and prices for several sizes increased in Q4, the rally in prices proved to be short-lived and prices appear to be in a holding pattern, with no changes in December or January. While prices for most sizes increased in Q4, the increase was modest. The last phase of the downward spiral in panel prices was characterized by a massive inventory drawdown in the display supply chain and a corresponding massive reduction in fab utilization by panel makers.
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Among major TV brands, exhibition of the TV product lines in the public showing in the LVCC Central Hall was diminished in 2023 compared to prior years. Whereas in 2020 Sony demonstrated a comprehensive TV lineup including 8K, OLED and LCD sets, in 2023 Sony decided to skip TV altogether in its exhibit space, and declared that they will demonstrate their TV lineup in a separate event later this year. Samsung and LG had more limited TV showing compared to prior years, so among the top four brands only TCL demonstrated anything close to a full product showcase.
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In the recently released Advanced Smartphone Display Shipment and Technology Report, we revealed additional granularity and insights for the expected panel revenue declines for OLED smartphones. OLED smartphones panel revenue is expected to decline to $32B in 2022 from $33B in 2021 and to $31B in 2023.
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Advanced TV shipments are expected to grow by a 14% CAGR through 2027 to 34.4M units generating $34.4B in revenue, according to the latest update to DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report, now available to subscribers. This report covers the worldwide premium TV market, including the most advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD-OLED, QDEF, MicroLED and MiniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. The report looks at current and future TV shipments and revenues by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and forecasts the growth of all these technologies. One month ago, we covered the most recent historical results and this week we will cover our updated forecast.
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Last week, we released the advanced notebook PC display (OLEDs and MiniLEDs) results and our latest forecast in the Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report. In Q3’22, we saw a Q/Q decrease of advanced notebook PC displays as a result of elevated channel and brand inventories in the total notebook market and slower growth in the advanced notebook display market as a result of the macroeconomic turbulence and weakened consumer and commercial demand.
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