The central promotional event of the holiday season happens this week, and retailers will be offering all-time low prices for TVs during Black Friday. The unprecedented decline in LCD TV panel prices continues to flow through to retail prices in the US, and the competition from LCD is also pulling down OLED TV prices, which are also hitting all-time lows.
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Now that all of the industry’s flat panel display makers have reported their Q3’22 financial results, we update our industry profile. The third quarter showed a gaping chasm between OLED-focused display makers, especially Samsung Display, and the companies focused on LCD technology. For LCD makers, it was the worst quarter in years and perhaps the worst ever. Meanwhile, Samsung Display recorded its highest profits ever in the first quarter after it discontinued LCD production.
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As revealed in DSCC’s latest release of the OLED Shipment Report – Flash Edition, OLED panel revenues decreased 11% Y/Y on a 17% Y/Y decline in panel shipments. Smartphones, tablets and TVs, which have a combined 70% unit share and 85% panel revenue share, decline while other categories had Y/Y unit growth.
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Last week, we reported on the warning that Apple issued regarding the temporary impact to the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone Pro Max as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak at the Foxconn facility in located in Zhengzhou, China.
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Apple issued a notice last week on their website noting that COVID-19 restrictions have temporarily impacted the primary iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max assembly facility located in Zhengzhou, China. The facility is operating at significantly reduced capacity. The Foxconn facility in Zhengzhou China has been dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak since mid-October that has caused panic among many of its workers.
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In October 2022, headline inflation numbers in the US continued their slow but steady decrease from their highest point in more than 40 years. Meanwhile, the steep declines in LCD TV panel prices that started in the second half of 2021 are continuing to flow through to retail and resumed their downward trend after a one-month pause in September.
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After fifteen months of decreases, LCD TV panel prices finally hit bottom in September 2022 and prices for several sizes increased in October. We now expect to see a modest increase in prices through the end of the year with prices plateauing in the first quarter above their all-time lows. The last phase of the downward spiral in panel prices was characterized by a massive inventory drawdown in the display supply chain and a corresponding massive reduction in fab utilization by panel makers. With some panel makers delaying to resume production until prices increase, the industry has seen prices edge up toward cash cost levels.
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Falling prices and weak demand hit hard on panel maker profitability in the third quarter, as reported by LG Display, AUO and Innolux in their earnings releases last week. All three companies reported larger net losses for the quarter, the worst quarter in years.
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Although the pandemic boom in semiconductors is over, and consumer electronics demand has weakened, Samsung Electronics continued to generate strong revenues and profits from multiple businesses, and its display business set a new profit record in the first quarter after ending LCD production. While competing display makers reliant on LCD suffered severe losses in the quarter (see separate story), Samsung generated profits selling OLED panels.
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The slowdown in display fab utilization that we predicted earlier this year reached new depths in the third quarter and was even more severe than we expected, according to the latest release of DSCC’s Quarterly All Display Fab Utilization Report issued this week. After more than a full year of panel prices falling to reach all-time lows, and after the entire display supply chain built excessive inventory, panel makers started to reduce utilization in Q2 and the slowdown accelerated in Q3. After a 6% sequential decline in Q2’22, total TFT input for all display makers in the third quarter was down 20% Q/Q and 24% Y/Y at 66.1M square meters, and in the current Q4’22 we expect total TFT input to be flat Q/Q and down 23% Y/Y at 66.1M square meters.
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