DSCC has released its latest update of the Advanced TV Display Cost Report, with updates to OLED and LCD cost profiles. This quarter’s edition includes updates to all sizes of WOLED panels and 55”+ LCD sizes including LCD with MiniLED backlights, and cost profiles for 55” and 65” QD-OLED panels from SDC.
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In the recently released Advanced Smartphone Display Shipment and Technology Report, we revealed additional granularity and insights on 2022 OLED smartphone results and our latest forecast through 2027. OLED smartphone panel shipments declined 7% Y/Y in 2022 to 587M units, with revenues down 1% to $32B.
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Advanced TV shipments are expected to decline in both units and revenue in 2023, but are forecast to resume growth in 2024, according to the latest update to DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report, now available to subscribers. This report covers the worldwide premium TV market, including the most advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD-OLED, QDEF, MicroLED and MiniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. The report looks at current and future TV shipments and revenues by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and forecasts the growth of all these technologies. Last month, we covered the most recent historical results and this week we will cover our updated forecast.
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After a pause in the winter, LCD TV panel prices are increasing as Q1 ends and Q2 begins. The extremely low LCD fab utilization levels in Q1 have allowed TV supply chain inventories to normalize and panel purchases have started to recover. The higher panel prices will lead to improved profitability for panel makers, but the industry remains in a difficult position with prices below cash costs.
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As revealed in our latest Quarterly Display Supply Chain Financial Health Report, display equipment revenues for 17 of the largest suppliers fell 9% Q/Q and 7% Y/Y to $1.4B, declining on a Y/Y basis for the sixth straight quarter as shown in the figure here. At $1.41B, it was the second worst quarter since Q2’20, when COVID disrupted equipment deliveries and installations. Display equipment spending is on the decline due to a decline in display demand resulting from the COVID bubble when significant display demand was pulled in along with a rise in supply in 2021 and 2022 as suppliers responded to the higher demand by adding more capacity. As a result, utilization plummeted, LCD TV panel prices fell below cash cost and panel manufacturers began delaying spending, which should extend through most of 2023.
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As revealed in DSCC’s latest release of the OLED Shipment Report, OLED panel revenues are expected to fall by 7% Y/Y in 2023 to $38.7B as a result of a 1% Y/Y shipment decline.
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Last week, we released the advanced notebook PC display (OLEDs and MiniLEDs) results and our latest forecast in the Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report. In Q4’22, we saw a Q/Q decrease of advanced notebook PC displays as a result of elevated channel and brand inventories in the total notebook market and slower growth in the advanced notebook display market as a result of the continued macroeconomic turbulence and the slowing of consumer and commercial demand.
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In the recently released Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report, some highlights for advanced monitors include: • In Q4’22, advanced monitor panel shipments grew 15% Q/Q and 126% Y/Y to 643K panels. We expect to see an increase to 825K panels in Q1’23, a 28% Q/Q increase with OLED displays increasing 88% Q/Q and MiniLEDs increasing 20%. The significant Q/Q growth for OLED displays is a result of significant growth from 34” QD-OLED and 49” QD-OLED models and 27”, 45” and 48” WOLED models.
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Since Apple adopted MiniLEDs in the iPad Pro and MacBook Pro’s in 2020, MiniLED has become a rising star in the display and LED industries. Other IT brands have also adopted MiniLEDs in notebook PCs and monitors since then. However, Apple plans to adopt OLEDs to replace MiniLEDs in the iPad Pro next year and in MacBook Pro’s over time. This will have a large impact on the MiniLED market. Increasing MiniLED’s advantages and minimizing their weaknesses has become a big task for the LED industry. This is being achieved through collaboration with companies in optics, backplanes and driver ICs for next generation MiniLED solutions. High cost is still the main obstacle. DSCC sees a number of ways in which the MiniLED industry is approaching cost reduction:
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As we approach the end of March, our latest survey of supply chain data shows that panel shipments for the iPhone 14 Series are tracking 2% higher than the iPhone 13 Series during the same time period of April – April. This continued decline in growth is the result of weakening demand, inventory corrections and macroeconomic turbulence.
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