In this article, I will share with you some of the highlights of the SID 2022 exhibit from my perspective. I focused on the panel suppliers with BOE, China Star, LGD and SDC having large booths and numerous interesting developments.
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Several companies demonstrated new MicroLED prototypes during Display Week. Many of them were microdisplays targeted at AR/VR applications. AUO demonstrated a 6.45” stretchable MicroLED display with a 900 × 540 resolution (163 PPI), as well as a 3.5” stretchable display (141 PPI) made in partnership with PlayNitride. AUO also had a high resolution 14.6” rollable display (2560 × 1440, 202 PPI) that used quantum dots for color conversion.
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LCD TV panel prices continue to decline, and the pace of price decreases is accelerating in the second quarter despite prices approaching cash costs. The combination of a continued surge in supply and near-universally weak demand continues to drive prices down. A month ago, we reported that the LCD TV panel market appears to be in a sort of a lull. That lull seems to have broken, and not in favor of the panel makers. Prices declined dramatically from their peaks in mid-2021 but supply has continued to be robust while we face the slowest season for demand. Our sources indicate that some brands considered that prices might stabilize in Q1 and used the period to stock up on low prices but have faced continued weak demand and now hold excess inventory.
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Given the worsening pricing and supply/demand picture, we have seen a number of fab expansion projects delayed and a few canceled. As a result, we now show 2023 equipment spending on a move-in basis down 57% to just $5.3B. By technology, we show LCDs down 70% to just $1.9B and OLEDs down 42% to $3.4B. Note, we do show a number of fab projects with deliveries in Q1’24 and show 2024 up 117% vs. 2023 to $11.6B. In 2024, we show OLEDs up 115% to $7.3B and LCDs up 121% to $4.3B. We also show another 15% growth in 2025 to a total of $13.3B. We lowered 2020-2025 spending by 6% to $71B.
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In the next few weeks, we will see the Q1 earnings announcements for flat panel display makers, starting with LG Display on Wednesday, April 27th. After a roller-coaster 2021, which saw both the biggest profits in the industry and sharply declining margins in the second half, we expect that panel makers will report another quarter of declining margins to begin 2022, which promises to be dramatically less profitable than last year.
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DSCC has released its latest update of our Advanced TV Display Cost Report, with updates to OLED and LCD cost profiles. This edition includes updates to all sizes of WOLED panels and 55”+ LCD sizes including LCD with MiniLED backlights, and cost profiles for 55” and 65” QD-OLED panels from SDC.
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Flat panel shipments with MiniLED technology will increase to more than 40M units by 2026, according to the latest update of DSCC’s Quarterly MiniLED Backlight Technology, Cost and Shipment Report. MiniLED technology is thriving in the display and optoelectronic industries. An increasing number of industry players, both upstream and downstream, are choosing to ride this train. One year ago, Apple launched its iPad Pro with MiniLED technology and the average quarterly shipments reached 1M sets in 2021. Apple also launched a new MacBook Pro (14” & 16”) with MiniLED BLU in the fourth quarter of 2021. By leveraging its M1 CPU, Apple’s MiniLED IT products had outstanding sales results in Q4’21, and the forecast for 2022 also looks very promising.
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Shipments of display panels for virtual reality (VR) will reach double-digits for the first time in 2022, according DSCC’s latest Augmented and Virtual Reality Display Technologies and Market Report . A total of 15.8M panels will find their way into VR headsets this year, with over 80% of the demand expected to come from Meta. While most of today’s VR headsets currently use LCD panels, other display technologies will soon appear. AMOLED will be back, thanks to the launch of Sony’s PlayStation VR2. We expect these AMOLED panels to have a pixel density well above 800 PPI, which is a record high for mass-produced AMOLED. With high contrast displays and no visible screen door effect, the PSVR2 is likely to be a hit among gamers.
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DSCC expects OLEDs to grow rapidly as costs fall, performance improves and capacity surges. The company is forecasting $65B in revenue on a 9% CAGR from 2021 to 2026 in the latest release of its Quarterly OLED Shipment Report, which reveals shipments and prices for every OLED application by brand, model and panel supplier.
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Advanced TV shipments are expected to grow by a 19% CAGR through 2026 to 38.6M units generating $35.4B in revenue, according to the latest update to DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report, now available to subscribers. This report covers the worldwide premium TV market, including the most advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD-OLED, QDEF, Dual Cell LCD and MiniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. The report looks at current and future TV shipments and revenues by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and forecasts the growth of all these technologies. Several weeks ago, we covered the most recent historical results and this week, we will cover our updated forecast.
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