In January 2023, headline inflation numbers in the US continued their slow but steady decrease from their highest point in more than 40 years, but the decrease in January was smaller than expected. Meanwhile, TV prices resumed their downward march in January after an unusual increase in December 2022.
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As revealed in DSCC’s latest release of the OLED Shipment Report – Flash Edition, OLED panel revenues decreased 3% Y/Y in Q4’22 to $12.6B as a result of a 7% Y/Y shipment decline. In Q4’22, by select OLED applications: • Smartphones increased 3% Y/Y in units and in revenues; • TVs decreased 4% Y/Y in units and 12% in revenues.
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First, the bad news. We downgraded 2023 display equipment spending in the Q1’23 issue of our Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report another 13% to just $3.8B, the lowest since 2012. The decline can be attributed to weak end market conditions which are causing panel manufacturers to push out capacity increases. Display demand remains soft with too much demand pulled into 2020 and 2021 during COVID along with inflation and slower economic growth further weakening 2022 and 2023 demand. You can see in the chart below that demand on an area basis was pulled in vs. our 2020 forecast by 2% in 2020 and by 3% in 2021.
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During the Samsung Unpacked Event, which I covered in last week’s DSCC weekly, the S23 series was officially announced with availability on February 17th and preorders starting on February 1st.
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The Super Bowl, to be held next weekend on February 13th, marks the end of the big selling season for TVs in the US, and typically the top brands make a final push for sales. In contrast with Black Friday, where the low-end Opening Price Point models have special deals, the Super Bowl weekend TV shopper skews towards the premium models, because often the intent is to show off the new TV purchase to family and friends with a Super Bowl party. While it’s possible to wait until the final weekend to get a TV, this past weekend (February 4th-5th) marked the last full weekend of shopping before the big game, and brands typically offer good deals.
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After LCD TV panel prices hit bottom in September 2022 and prices for several sizes increased in Q4, the rally in prices proved to be short-lived and prices have been in a holding pattern, with no changes from December into February. While prices for most sizes increased in Q4, the increase was modest. The last phase of the downward spiral in panel prices was characterized by a massive inventory drawdown in the display supply chain and a corresponding massive reduction in fab utilization by panel makers.
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The iPhone 14 Series is unquestionably one of the few bright spots in the 2022 and 2023 smartphone market. It has allowed Apple to gain share and even boost its blended ASPs vs. the iPhone 13 Series despite the downturn in the economy. In the following charts, you can see their monthly panel procurement results obtained by DSCC through its supply chain sources where the iPhone 13 series in 2021-2022 is compared with the iPhone 14 series in 2022-2023. As indicated:
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Although the FPD market continues to face difficult market conditions, automotive panels will continue to grow in 2023, with total shipments (LCD + OLED) expected to exceed 200M panels, which means an average of more than two panels per car. The market should continue to grow steadily as the rate of electrification increases.
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The slowdown in display fab utilization that started in Q2’22 has bottomed out but the recovery in the first part of 2023 is slower than we expected, according to the latest release of DSCC’s Quarterly All Display Fab Utilization Report issued this week. The 2022 downturn was the most severe since 2008, and arguably the most severe ever, resulting from the post-pandemic slowdown in demand combined with excessive inventory in the display supply chain. That inventory has been diminished by slower utilization in the second half of 2022, but it remains at elevated levels, hindering the industry’s recovery.
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Samsung Display (SDC) is not standing still in OLED notebook display technology even though they already completely dominate this rapidly growing market. According to DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report, SDC had a 99.8% share in OLED notebook displays in 2022 and is expected to enjoy a 99.3% share in 2023.
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