Blog

The Display Capacity Outlook Continues to Fall

June 26, 2023

After upgrading display capacity for six straight issues on improved market conditions in LCDs, we have now lowered display capacity for six consecutive quarters on delays and cancellations as conditions worsen and remain weak. Display prices are not expected to exceed cash costs until Q2’23. Our latest capacity forecast for 2027 is down 1% vs. our previous forecast and 2026 is down 12% from peak levels. The 2021-2027 display capacity CAGR was downgraded from 2.2% to 2.0% in our Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report. Both OLED and LCD capacity forecasts came down on fab cancellations and delays. We increased our LCD 2021-2027 CAGR from 1.5% to 1.6% on the Vedanta Indian fab, with OLEDs reduced from 9.2% to 6.3% on more G8.7 delays.
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Foldable

DSCC Raises Its 2023 Foldable Smartphone Outlook as Lower Panel Prices Fuel Android Brand Interest

June 19, 2023

DSCC has raised its outlook for foldable smartphone shipments for 2023 by 4% to 19.3M units, which is up 50% Y/Y due to sharply lower panel prices from Chinese OLED suppliers resulting in lower product prices and stronger demand. Motorola will not be alone in launching a clamshell foldable at $799 with China’s Honor and Tecno expected to follow at similar or even lower prices as clamshell foldable panel prices fall rapidly. In addition, DSCC sees a better than expected outlook from Huawei on strong commercial/government demand in China. Samsung is also expecting much stronger results in 2023 on the Z Flip 5 and Z Fold 5 than it experienced in 2022 with the Z Flip 4 and Z Fold 4. While foldable smartphone shipments were down Y/Y in both Q4’22 and Q1’23, double-digit Y/Y growth is expected from Q2’23 through Q4’23.
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Events

Takeaways from SID Papers on Patterning OLEDs with Photolithography, Part 1

June 12, 2023

Given all the attention paid to JDI’s eLEAP and Visionox’s ViP technology which was also covered in SID/DSCC Business Conference keynotes from Applied Materials’ Max McDaniel and myself, I thought it would be interesting to review the technical talks on OLED patterning using photolithography in the SID Symposium in Session 17 – OLED Displays 1. The five talks under review are listed below and will be divided between two issues. This issue we will cover the JDI and Visionox talks:
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Augmented and Virtual Reality

Apple Vision Pro: A Game Changer?

June 7, 2023

Apple finally unveiled its first AR/VR headset at WWDC this week. The Apple Vision Pro will be available in the US “early next year” for a whopping $3499. Apple justifies the price by saying it is the “most advanced personal electronics device ever” and they may be right. The Apple Vision Pro has three display panels, a spatial audio system, 12 cameras, five sensors, six microphones and is powered by the M2 chip along with a new R1 chip for the sensor arrays.
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Augmented and Virtual Reality

Meta Announces Pricing for Quest 3 Headset

June 5, 2023

Meta has announced that pricing for the Quest 3 headset will start from $499.99 for 128GB of storage. There is no official release date yet, but the headset should start shipping “this fall”. Meta is also reverting the price of the Quest 2 to $299.99, less than a year after a price increase. The Quest 2 was launched at the end of 2020 for $299 but the price was increased to $399 in August 2022, due to rising manufacturing and shipping costs. “We’ll continue to sell Quest 2 and Pro alongside Quest 3, as well as continue shipping new software updates to make the Quest experience even better,” the company said on its blog.
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TV

Springtime Rally in LCD TV Panel Prices Will Stall in the Summer

June 5, 2023

The robust rally in LCD TV panel prices that started with the vernal equinox will end with the summer solstice as LCD makers ramped up supply in the second quarter. Excess TV panel inventories were depleted by three quarters of low utilization from Q3’22 to Q1’23, but current fab utilization is more than enough to supply worldwide demand in the current weak economy. We forecast that the price rally will end in June and that prices will stabilize in Q3’23.
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Display Equipment

2023 Equipment Spending Outlook Worsens, But Bookings Will Boom on 2024 Rebound

May 30, 2023

Display manufacturers continue to push out spending as market conditions remain weak. Panel manufacturers are primarily targeting the high end of the IT (notebook PCs, tablets and monitors) market with new investments, but with those markets currently seeing significantly lower demand, a number of manufacturers are pushing out their spending. Our latest Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report downgraded 2020-2026 spending by 3% to $62B with OLEDs down 8% and LCDs up 4% over that period. By year:
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Foldable

Foldable Smartphone Shipments Decline Y/Y Again in Q1’23

May 30, 2023

As revealed in our latest Quarterly Foldable/Rollable Display Shipment and Technology Report, foldable smartphone shipments fell 39% Q/Q and 8% Y/Y in Q1’23 to 1.93M units. It was the second straight quarter with a Y/Y decline for foldable smartphones, which have struggled since the launch of the iPhone 14 series along with a decline in Android phones and the lack of compelling new foldable phones. By brand, Samsung’s share slipped from 83% in Q4’22 to 48% in Q1’23 as demand stalled for its Galaxy Z Flip 4 and Z Fold 4. Oppo jumped into second with a 22.7% share followed by Huawei at 15.7%. The top five models in Q1’23 were the Z Flip 4 at 29%, the Huawei Pocket S at 16%, the Galaxy Z Fold 4 at 14%, the Oppo Find N2 Flip at 12% and the Oppo Find N at 6%. In Q2’23, Vivo’s share is expected to surge to 16%, #3 after Samsung and Huawei. Shipments should rebound Y/Y in Q2’23 as more products become available at a wider range of price points and a forecast for Q2’23 was provided in the latest update. A full forecast through 2027 will be provided in a few weeks.
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