After peaking the week of March 27th, the growth rate in cases and fatalities has now fallen for 5 straight weeks with the case growth slowing from 27% to 20% and fatality growth slowing from 38% to 21%.
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Display glass shipments are expected to decline by 4% in volume terms in 2020, and revenues will decline by 8% this year, according to the latest update to DSCC’s Quarterly Display Glass Report, released this week. Shipments in Q1 increased by 1% in volume terms, but shipments are expected to decline Q/Q in both Q2 and Q3 as the display industry responds to the demand slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Sales for AMOLED stack materials for all applications are expected to grow at a 23% annual rate from $951 million in 2019 to $2.69 billion in 2024, according to the latest update of DSCC’s Quarterly AMOLED Material Report. The report details all aspects of AMOLED materials, including multiple applications, supplier matrices, and cost comparisons.
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Quantum Dot based panel shipments are forecast to grow from 3M shipments in 2018 to 31M shipments by 2025 representing a compounded annual growth rate of 40%, according to DSCC’s new Annual Quantum Dot Display Technology and Market Outlook Report, introduced this week and now available to subscribers. This first of its kind report provides both technical and market information about various QD architectures for use in display including QDEF, QDOG, QD OLED, QNED and EL QDs.
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Advanced TV revenues are forecast to grow by a 9% growth rate from 2019 to 2025 to $26 billion, according to the new DSCC Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report, introduced this week and now available to subscribers. This report covers the worldwide premium TV market, including the most Advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD Display, QDEF, Dual Cell LCD and MiniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. This report looks at current and future TV shipments and revenues by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and forecasts the growth of all of these technologies. The report includes the preliminary shipment result for Q1 2020, a forecast by quarter for 2020 and an annual forecast to 2025.
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Display industry fab utilization defied both our predictions and the coronavirus by increasing to 85% in Q1’20, according to the latest release of DSCC’s Quarterly All Display Fab Utilization Report, issued this week. In Q1 2020, total TFT input for all display makers was up 1% Q/Q and up 5% Y/Y at 69.8 million square meters, but the demand for LCD applications cannot support such high utilization rates. In the current Q2 2020, we expect total TFT input to fall 6% Q/Q and 7% Y/Y to 65.8 million square meters.
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COVID-19 cases and fatalities continued to plateau.
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The flexible OLED market is ripe for a price war in our opinion due to its high prices and low utilization and we may get one sooner than later as multi-sourcing becomes more widespread.
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Prior to COVID-19, DSCC had forecasted OLED notebook panels to surge from 0.5M units in 2019 to nearly 3M units in 2020. This is a 490% growth rate and Samsung is accounting for 99% of these panels. In addition, 99% of these panels are rigid OLEDs. Although notebook PC OEMs might enjoy the benefit of the thin and light form factor that flexible OLEDs offer, they are too expensive today to include in notebook PCs other than in high priced foldable notebooks.
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Stocks rallied for the 2nd straight week as investors and policy makers focus on re-opening global economies and possible vaccines. On the other hand, economists focused on the weak economic data and continued uncertainty about when world growth will recover. As shown below, our indexes were up from 1.5% to 7% led by the concentrated semiconductor index (SMH) and our display equipment index (ESSI). On a YTD basis, large cap tech (XLK) is down the least at -3% followed by SMH with emerging markets (EEM) down the most at -19% followed by panel makers at -18% (PSSI)
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