The flexible OLED market is ripe for a price war in our opinion due to its high prices and low utilization and we may get one sooner than later as multi-sourcing becomes more widespread.
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Prior to COVID-19, DSCC had forecasted OLED notebook panels to surge from 0.5M units in 2019 to nearly 3M units in 2020. This is a 490% growth rate and Samsung is accounting for 99% of these panels. In addition, 99% of these panels are rigid OLEDs. Although notebook PC OEMs might enjoy the benefit of the thin and light form factor that flexible OLEDs offer, they are too expensive today to include in notebook PCs other than in high priced foldable notebooks.
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Stocks rallied for the 2nd straight week as investors and policy makers focus on re-opening global economies and possible vaccines. On the other hand, economists focused on the weak economic data and continued uncertainty about when world growth will recover. As shown below, our indexes were up from 1.5% to 7% led by the concentrated semiconductor index (SMH) and our display equipment index (ESSI). On a YTD basis, large cap tech (XLK) is down the least at -3% followed by SMH with emerging markets (EEM) down the most at -19% followed by panel makers at -18% (PSSI)
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SID’s Display Week was delayed to August 2nd to 7th and moved from the Moscone Center in San Francisco to the San Jose Convention Center. The SID/DSCC Business Conference is now scheduled for August 3rd and 4th.
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The Bay Area Chapter of the Society for Information Display asked me to speak at their monthly webinar on April 7th. We then opened it up to our customers and other interested participants. There were 186 people listening in. If you didn’t have a chance to listen in and are an SID member or DSCC client and would like a copy of the slides, please contact me at ross.young@displaysupplychain.com.
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Stocks rallied last week with our indexes rising 2% - 14% as shown below led by our equipment supplier index (ESSI) with our panel supplier index (PSSI) up the least due to under-performance by the large Chinese players. On a YTD basis, these indexes are now down as little as 7% and as much as 21%.
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DSCC released the 3rd version of its annual foldable report over the weekend. The 2020 report, found at https://bit.ly/3c2QHZE, combines and updates our 2018 report which was more technical with our 2019 report which was more market focused. We think this report represents the best of both approaches.
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March mercifully ended after producing a global pandemic,a record 6.6M in weekly US initial jobless claims and a large drop in the stock market. By index type, March ranged from down 9% for big cap tech (XLK) with Microsoft and Apple steadier than most to -26% for our Panel Supplier Stock Index (PSSI) with AUO, Innolux and CSOT down at least 30%.
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On Monday March 30th, Samsung announced that it would end all of its LCD production by the end of 2020. Let that sink in for a minute. The leader in LCDs just 10 years ago is exiting the LCD market.
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The stock price volatility in March continued as the Federal Reserve and Congress implemented more monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts to try to combat the recessionary impact of COVID-19 on the economy. While previous efforts were largely ignored by the stock market, these bigger and bolder efforts finally gave us back to back gains which we hadn’t seen since February. Have we bottomed? We likely need the pace of COVID-19 to slow and it is still accelerating as testing catches up with the number of real cases out there. The US jumped from #6 last week to #1 this week in number of cases with over 100K now on a 445% W/W increase.
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