Stocks rallied last week with our indexes rising 2% - 14% as shown below led by our equipment supplier index (ESSI) with our panel supplier index (PSSI) up the least due to under-performance by the large Chinese players. On a YTD basis, these indexes are now down as little as 7% and as much as 21%.
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DSCC released the 3rd version of its annual foldable report over the weekend. The 2020 report, found at https://bit.ly/3c2QHZE, combines and updates our 2018 report which was more technical with our 2019 report which was more market focused. We think this report represents the best of both approaches.
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March mercifully ended after producing a global pandemic,a record 6.6M in weekly US initial jobless claims and a large drop in the stock market. By index type, March ranged from down 9% for big cap tech (XLK) with Microsoft and Apple steadier than most to -26% for our Panel Supplier Stock Index (PSSI) with AUO, Innolux and CSOT down at least 30%.
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On Monday March 30th, Samsung announced that it would end all of its LCD production by the end of 2020. Let that sink in for a minute. The leader in LCDs just 10 years ago is exiting the LCD market.
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The stock price volatility in March continued as the Federal Reserve and Congress implemented more monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts to try to combat the recessionary impact of COVID-19 on the economy. While previous efforts were largely ignored by the stock market, these bigger and bolder efforts finally gave us back to back gains which we hadn’t seen since February. Have we bottomed? We likely need the pace of COVID-19 to slow and it is still accelerating as testing catches up with the number of real cases out there. The US jumped from #6 last week to #1 this week in number of cases with over 100K now on a 445% W/W increase.
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LCD panel makers can’t get a break. After an absolutely brutal 2019 with TV panel prices falling to all-time lows, panel makers were starting to see some signs of improvement in Q1 before the coronavirus hit. Now the virus has led to severe concerns about demand, with everyone in the industry revising their forecasts down (DSCC’s latest update for 2020 is included in this issue as a separate article). With supply only lightly affected by the pandemic, and with the massive economic impact now expected in major developed economies, a slowdown in demand has become the defining feature of the industry, taking away all the upward pricing pressure.
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In consideration of the dramatic worldwide economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, DSCC has revised its outlook for demand for major display devices; we now expect Y/Y declines in all major display applications and declines in area and revenue for the display industry.
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It was another volatile week with more losses. It was the worst week of trading for US markets since 2008 and March is on pace to be worst month since 1931.
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We have updated DSCC’s Quarterly OLED Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report for Q1, providing DSCC’s latest capacity outlook for the industry and our forecast for OLED panel demand. As we have reported for more than a year now, OLED supply for smartphones (technically, for Small & Medium applications) continues to significantly exceed demand which is expected to persist for years. However, the supply growth keeps coming primarily due to Chinese government subsidies. We have revised our outlook for OLED TVs on both the supply and demand sides, and we continue to expect high utilization at OLED TV fabs.
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DSCC is working on a new report for the TV market, a product of our collaboration with China-based market research provider DiScien. We expect to have this report available in the first half of April, so it’s time to share a few highlights with our readers.
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