Expectations for iPhone 14-19 Notch vs. Hole vs. UPC Designs
Based on discussions throughout the supply chain, we now think we have a pretty good idea for the design and timing of future Apple iPhone displays.
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Based on discussions throughout the supply chain, we now think we have a pretty good idea for the design and timing of future Apple iPhone displays.
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2021 OLED Shipments Rise 25% Y/Y on Double- and Triple-Digit Y/Y Smartphone, Notebook PC, Monitor and TV Growth – DSCC Expects Double Digit Growth in 2022
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Universal Display Corporation (UDC) changed the narrative in its earnings release last week. After 2021 revenues came roughly in line with its guidance and Q4 earnings came below expectations, and despite guidance for 2022 that seemed conservative, UDC pleased investors by announcing that it would reach target performance on phosphorescent blue emitters by the end of this year. The addition of blue to UDC’s portfolio has the potential to dramatically improve UDC’s revenue and also the potential to accelerate the entire sector of OLED displays, and investors were thrilled at the news, sending UDC’s stock up 23% on the Thursday after the earnings release on a day when many stocks tanked because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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Our Quarterly Foldable/Rollable Display Shipment and Technology Report is filled with insights on the latest foldable and rollable product plans from panel makers and brands, regional demand as well as panel and cover window cost forecasts, supply chain relationships and forecasts and much more. We expect to publish the pivot tables and report this week.
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Pulled by strong demand for large-screen LCD panels, display glass shipments increased by 13% in 2021 to an all-time high of 687M square meters, according to the latest update to DSCC’s Display Glass Report, released last week. Glass makers shipped 174.5M square meters of display glass in Q4’21, a 2% decrease Q/Q. Shipments are expected to increase by 1% Q/Q in Q1’22 to 176M square meters as higher capacity offsets slower panel maker utilizations.
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As part of our latest Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report, we released final market share results by equipment type, by process type and overall. Overall, on a delivery basis with service revenues excluded, we show Applied Materials (AMAT) as #1, up from #2 in 2020, on a slower 13% decline than Canon/Tokki with a 39% decline. AMAT increased its overall share for the fifth straight year reaching 10.5%.
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In our just released Q1’22 Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report, we reveal that there are now 11 different 15K G8.5/G8.6 IT OLED lines under development and provide the timing and equipment spending for each. IT fab spending is expected to increase every year from 2021 to 2025 and lead OLED spending in 2024 and 2025 and LCD + OLED spending in 2025.
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SmartKem, a UK-based developer of OTFT backplanes, has entered into a joint development agreement with Nanosys to work on a “new generation of low-cost solution printed MicroLED and quantum dot materials for advanced displays.” Last year, Nanosys acquired glō, a company specialized in MicroLED technologies, including epitaxy as well as device and transfer technology. Nanosys has also been actively developing electroluminescent quantum dot (EL-QD) technology, which the company now calls “NanoLED.”
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LCD TV panel prices, which peaked in summer 2021, fell through the second half of the year and are continuing to fall in the new year. The pace of price decreases is slowing, and we expect that pattern to continue through the first half of the year as prices approach cash cost for some panel makers.
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With LCD panel prices continuing to fall toward cash costs or even below cash costs, we forecast that display fab utilization will slow in the first half of 2022, according to the latest release of DSCC’s Quarterly All Display Fab Utilization Report issued last week. However, because of capacity increases, even with lower utilization, the industry will have increased input for the first half, suggesting continued pressure on panel prices. In Q4’21, total TFT input for all display makers was down 2% Q/Q and up 9% Y/Y at 86.3M square meters, and in the current Q1’22, we expect total TFT input to be up 1% Q/Q and up 8% Y/Y to 87.1M square meters.
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