A shutdown by major Chinese LCD makers for the country’s National Day holiday has throttled industry supply leading in the fourth quarter, and as a result LCD TV panel prices have stabilized. For the first time ever, in our outlook we expect prices for all panel sizes to be unchanged for the next three months.
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LG Display will kick off the Q3 earnings season with a report on Thursday, October 23rd, to be followed by AUO, Samsung and the rest of the flat panel display makers. For Chinese panel makers, the Q3 report will be an abbreviated report, which usually is issued about October 31st. Let’s preview the panel maker earnings season.
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A subsidy program implemented by the Chinese government, part of a wider set of packages to revive the economy, is expected to boost TV demand in the fourth quarter. On September 25th, China’s NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission) issued CNY 150B (US$21.4B) of ultra-long-term special national bond funds to localities to support the implementation of consumer goods trade-in according to local conditions
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As revealed at our Display 360 Summit, Apple’s first generation OLED iPad Pro panel demand has really slowed down after a strong Q2’24 despite arguably having the best displays ever produced for the tablet market with tandem OLED stacks, LTPS backplanes, 0.2mm thickness and packaged in the thinnest tablets on the market.
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A shutdown by major Chinese LCD makers for the country’s National Day holiday has reduced industry supply leading into the fourth quarter, and as a result has firmed up LCD TV panel prices. While panel prices are still coming down in Q4, the pace of decline has slowed. While we do not see any demand drivers that could push prices up, the pace of price declines is very gradual, approaching flat.
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As summer turns to fall, falling is exactly what is happening to LCD TV panel prices. The springtime rally helped TV panel makers to improve profitability in the second quarter, but that profitability is likely to deteriorate in the third quarter. Compared to many former down-cycles, the pace of price declines is more gradual, and we expect that pattern to continue in the coming months, but as of now we do not yet see prices bottoming out.
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The three publicly traded panel makers in China with substantial large-screen LCD businesses released their financial reports for the second quarter of 2024 last week, and the results painted a picture of a healthy display industry. The companies rode higher prices to increased profits and are generating free cash flow. Meanwhile, the three Chinese panel makers focused on smaller screens – Tianma, EverDisplay and Visionox – have not yet reported Q2’24 results as of August 30th.
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According to South Korea’s Etnews, LG Display has successfully developed an OLED panel utilizing blue phosphorescence. While blue phosphorescence offers excellent efficiency, its development has been challenging, and it has not been commercialized until now. This breakthrough is considered a significant advancement in OLED technology.
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As reported by Business Korea, LG Display announced on Thursday, August 1st that it has selected China Star Optronics Technology (CSOT, aka China Star) as the preferred negotiating partner for the sale of its share of its Gen 8.5 LCD fab in Guangzhou, China. While there is no agreement on a purchase price, the announcement represents a major step forward for LGD to raise additional capital to fund OLED expansion.
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The springtime rally in LCD TV panel prices from February to June has turned into a summertime slump as panel prices are headed down in the third quarter. The rally helped TV panel makers to improve profitability in the second quarter, but that profitability is likely to deteriorate in the third quarter. Unlike many former transitions, we do not expect a rapid deterioration in panel prices but rather a soft decline, at least for the next few months. This slump in 2H’24 follows a short rally in 1H’24, which followed a short slump in 2H’23, and together these “mini-cycles” represent a period of unusual stability in panel prices, where they have been sustained within a narrow range.
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