Last Wednesday, DSCC held a virtual conference which featured 7 talks from DSCC analysts on various aspects of the display market. The event was well attended and well received. Attendees shared a number of positive, unsolicited comments including:

• “This conference was of extraordinary value. I’d easily pay twice what I paid to attend. Thanks to you and your team for an outstanding effort.”
• “DSCC’s talks are always useful. You guys do a great job.”
• “Thank you for a great virtual conference. It was very well done and explains very well the highlights of the markets today.”
• “Great idea to organize this webinar.”

Topics covered included:

• Smartphone Market Outlook
• Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Outlook
• Foldable and Rollable Market Outlook
• Advanced TV Market Outlook
• MiniLED and MicroLED Outlook
• Display Market Outlook
• Chinese AMOLED Display Industry Status and Strategy

For just $349, attendees will receive highlights from many of DSCC’s latest reports. Some of the key takeaways include:

• Smartphones
  • Q4’20 will be a record quarter for AMOLEDs with Apple delaying much of its panel procurement until Q4’20 and Samsung Mobile pulling in its S21 launch resulting in significant panel shipments from November. Q4’20 is well above any other quarter on record for AMOLEDs.
  • Apple is expected to lead in total AMOLED smartphone panel procurement for the first time in Q4’20, overtaking Samsung.
  • Samsung Display and LG Display are expected to gain share in Q4’20 on the Apple launch at the expense of BOE.
  • Flexible AMOLEDs are expected to have a large advantage over rigid for the first time in Q4’20 on the Apple and S21 launches.
  • Q4’20 is expected to be the first quarter where the average AMOLED smartphone panel size declines due to share gains by the iPhone 12 Mini, iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro, Google’s new line-up, etc. <6” and 6.2” are gaining significant share. Even Samsung’s flagships have stopped growing with the S21 Ultra expected to be smaller than the S20 Ultra. It looks like the average phone size has peaked excluding foldables and rollables.
  • 5G overtook 4G for the first time in Q3’20 for AMOLED smartphones and will have a big advantage in Q4’20 on the iPhone 12 launch.
  • Qualcomm is expected to lead in AMOLED smartphone chipset share in 2020 although Apple will lead at 5G and Samsung will lead at 4G with Qualcomm 2^nd in both.
  • Samsung is expected to have 8 of the top 10 best-selling 120Hz AMOLED smartphones in 2020 on a revenue basis led by the Note 20 Ultra.
  • A deep dive into LTPO including challenges, fab schedules, projected capacity share and more.
  • Smartphone market forecast by display technology, AMOLED form factor and by brand by technology and form factor.
• Capex & Equipment
  • Detailed look at the status of all new fab projects and new technology transitions at the following panel suppliers:
    • LG Display
    • Samsung Display
    • BOE
    • China Star
    • CHOT
    • EDO
    • HKC
    • InfoVision
    • Sharp
    • Tianma
    • Visionox
  • Analysis of how each new China fab is being financed in terms of debt vs. capital and local government vs. supplier share. Local governments are still assuming a majority share of all invested capital. Also provided fab layouts at all new fabs in China.
  • Forecasts of the top 4 equipment suppliers’ revenues from each new fab.
  • Detailed look at equipment spending in terms of move-in vs. install, LCD vs. OLED, mobile vs. TV, backplane type, country, manufacturer, process and tool type.
  • 2017-2021 total display equipment market share and revenue results and forecast.
  • Provided 2016-2021 supplier market share results and forecasts for some of the largest segments including:
    • Exposure
    • Coater/developer
    • CF exposure
    • CF coaters
    • CVD
    • PVD
    • Dry Etch
    • Wet etch/strip/clean
    • FMM VTE
    • IJP TFE
      
      
• Foldable and Rollable Market Outlook
  • This talk examined the latest results and forecasts for foldable and rollable panels and devices.
  • It provided the latest results for 2020 by brand by model and by panel supplier on a unit and revenue basis. It also showed this data on a monthly basis in terms of panel procurement, device production and device shipments.
  • For both 2019 and 2020, there was a significant gap between panel shipments, device production and device sell-in. This gap is explained and is expected to narrow as volumes grow.
  • Samsung was clearly the dominant brand in 2020 with over a 90% share in Q3’20 and Q4’20 on a panel procurement basis and an 87% share for the year.
  • By model, the Samsung Galaxy Z Flip and the Z Fold 2 are expected to be the two best-selling foldables in 2020 on both a unit and revenue basis.
  • Samsung’s shipment share by region was shown with Korea expected to be the #1 region for foldables in 2020.
  • Market share was also shown by quarter and by year for:
    • Form factor – clamshell vs. in-fold vs. out-fold with clamshells leading in the 1H’20 and in-folding leading in 2H’20.
    • UTG vs. CPI with UTG dominating in 2020.
    • Refresh rate – 120Hz held a dominant share in 2H’20.
    • Backplane type – following the refresh rate trends, LTPO dominated in 2H’20.
    • Touch type – Touch on TFE dominated in 2019 and 2020.
    • 4G vs. 5G with 5G dominating in 2H’20.
    • Price band
    • Average size
    • Chipset supplier and Model
  • This talk also examined what is coming by looking at:
    • A change in Samsung’s flagship strategy and what this means for foldables.
    • Expectations for the Z Flip 3, Z Fold 3 and a 3^rd foldable expected by Samsung to hit the lowest price points yet.
    • Outlook for multi-folds including pros, cons and expected timing.
    • Expectations for other brands in 2021 including:
      • Google
      • Motorola
      • Oppo
      • Royole
      • Xiaomi
    • Expectations for Apple
    • How foldable panels will continue to get thinner.
    • Rollables – pros and cons. Some of the benefits of rollables vs. foldables include no seam, reduced thickness vs. foldables in the folded position and a larger radius which should expand tolerances and reduce the likelihood of delamination and improve yields. Concerns include durability of the motors and sliding mechanism and reduced space for the battery and other components due to the motors and sliding mechanisms. In addition, the entire panel is under stress from the curvature as opposed to just the same and it will likely be more difficult to waterproof rollable devices. Also discussed is where rollables are likely to be positioned in terms of size and pricing vs. foldables.
  • Long term forecast
    • We provided foldable/rollable forecasts through 2025 which featured:
      • Shipments by application in units and revenues revealing both panel and device revenues.
      • Foldable vs. rollable units and size share within each segment;
      • Size forecast and average size;
      • Forecasted brand and panel supplier share;
      • Clamshell vs. In-fold vs. Multi-Fold vs. Out-fold forecast;
      • UTG vs. CPI;
      • Refresh rate and backplane technology;
      • 4G vs. 5G;
      • Price band and average price.

• Advanced TV Market Outlook
  • The total TV market was down in 1H 2020 due to the pandemic, but recovered with 10% Y/Y growth in Q3. North America and Western Europe both increased >40% Y/Y while other regions remained negatively affected by COVID.
  • White-OLED (WOLED) has been effective in the premium TV market, but costs more than 2x LCD TV with QDEF.
  • WOLED and MiniLED backlit LCD TV with QDEF will compete at similar prices points, but MiniLED costs will remain lower.
  • The Advanced TV market surged in Q3 2020 from stay-at-home demand in North America and Western Europe.
  • Advanced TV features in both LCD and OLED have been expanded to smaller screen sizes to expand the market at lower price points.
  • Samsung lost share of the premium TV market to WOLED in 2017-2018, but has regained share by emphasizing big screens >65”, high brightness and color volume.
  • Samsung dominates the Advanced TV market in North America and Europe, but China has become a battleground between Samsung, TCL, Huawei, Hisense and others.
  • Advanced TV shipments are expected to increase to 32.5 million by 2025, and growth in 75”+ TV is expected to continue at a very high rate.
  • MicroLED will emerge as a super-premium TV technology at very small volumes.

• MiniLED and MicroLED
  • Most MiniLED backlights are currently manufactured on PCB backplanes, with various configurations of optical distance (OD) and number of zones.
  • Samsung is targeting 2M MiniLED backlit TVs in 2021. Apple is expected to launch a new iPad with 12.9" MiniLED backlit display.
  • Low-end MiniLED LCD will have a cost advantage on OLED TVs (WOLED and inkjet OLED).
  • Shipments of MiniLED LCDs will reach 48.2 million units in 2025, growing at a 247% CAGR from 2020 to 2025
  • MicroLED cannot be driven like OLED. Efficiency and wavelength are dependent on current density.
  • Stamp-based mass transfer is most popular currently. PlayNitride has made MicroLED prototypes in collaboration with Samsung, AUO, Tianma and China Star.
  • MicroLED is expected to represent only 0.6% of TV panel revenues by 2026.
  • Monolithic approach is the best for high PPI MicroLED displays for AR/VR.
  • In the long term, MicroLED can dominate in AR and can gain some market share in VR.

• Display Market Outlook
  • DSCC expects display revenues to stay flat in 2020 at $111B helped by WFH and LFH boosting demand for IT panels and tightening supply leading to price increases. DSCC expects revenues to grow 6% in 2021 to $118B and reach $127B in 2024.
  • Actual LCD and mobile OLED fab utilization and forecasts for long term LCD and OLED supply/demand in both TVs and smartphones.
  • Near term LCD TV panel price and cost forecasts.
  • Long term TV, notebook, automotive and smartphone panel cost forecasts by display technology and region.
  • DSCC’s latest forecasts for TVs and smartphones by region through 2024.
  • Forecasts for all major display applications on a unit/area/$US basis by display technology.
  • Display capacity by technology, by substrate size, by supplier, impact of Korea’s LCD fab downsizing, input capacity by technology by country, by backplane type, flexible vs. rigid OLED input capacity by manufacturer and more.

• Chinese AMOLED Display Industry Status and Strategy
  • This talk delved into the current environment for AMOLED suppliers in China given the restrictions on Huawei.
  • It provided the 2019 shipments results and latest 2020 forecasts for China’s AMOLED suppliers for both smartphones and wearables. All of the suppliers enjoyed very healthy growth in smartphones. It also examined the financial results of Chinese AMOLED panel suppliers identifying winners and losers.
  • Also shown were:
    • The customer relationships for each of China’s AMOLED panel suppliers.
    • Detailed fab schedules for each of China’s AMOLED panel suppliers.
    • LTPO and Touch on TFE plans for each of China’s AMOLED suppliers.
    • China’s 5G results.
    • Single’s Day smartphone sell-thru results by price band by model.
    • Detailed shipment forecast by smartphone brand by display technology from 2019-2025 for Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, Huawei and Honor. One highlight of this data by brand by technology is that rigid OLEDs are projected to do very well in 2021 in China as brands transition away from LCDs but still want to meet lower price points than can be met by flexible OLEDs.
    • SWOT analysis for China’s AMOLED suppliers.
      

To receive PDFs and video files of the 7 presentations, please visit : https://checkout.square.site/merchant/C5P8DKY1YXB6J/checkout/CI6MN6WCTMUFZBHG6FLBRRGC

If you have any questions, please contact info@displaysupplychain.com.